NEW DELHI, May 30, 2025: All eyes are on the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) as India awaits the release of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter (January-March) of the fiscal year 2024-25 later today. This India Q4 FY25 GDP data preview indicates that the economy is estimated to have grown by 6.7% in Q4, a slight uptick from the 6.2% recorded in the preceding quarter (Q3 FY25). The official data is scheduled to be announced at 4 PM IST.
The anticipated improvement in GDP growth is largely attributed to a noticeable rise in rural demand, a significant increase in government expenditure, and a better-than-expected performance in exports during the final quarter of the fiscal year.
Economic Context and Projections
The 6.7% growth estimate for Q4 FY25 comes after the National Statistical Office (NSO) reported a 6.2% growth for the October-December 2024 quarter (Q3 FY25) on February 28, 2025. This was a moderation compared to the robust 8.4% growth seen in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year (Q3 FY24).
To achieve the government’s overall growth target of 6.5% for the entire fiscal year 2024-25, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran had earlier stated that the economy would need to expand at a rate of 7.6% in the fourth quarter. Dr. Nageswaran also highlighted that large-scale events like the Prayagraj Mahakumbh were expected to provide a boost to economic activity, aiding in meeting the annual target.
Recent Annual GDP Performance:
A look at India’s GDP trajectory over the past five years shows a dynamic path:
- 2020: -5.8% (Contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic)
- 2021: 9.7% (Signifying a strong rebound post-pandemic)
- 2022: 7.0% (Indicating stable growth)
- 2023: 8.2% (Continued economic improvement)
- 2024: 6.5% (Projected growth, still robust despite some moderation)
Understanding GDP: A Brief Overview
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a critical indicator used to track the health of an economy. It represents the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a specific period. This includes production by foreign companies operating within the country.
There are primarily two types of GDP:
- Real GDP: Calculated using the value of goods and services at a base year’s prices (currently 2011-12 for India) or stable prices, thus accounting for inflation.
- Nominal GDP: Calculated using current market prices, without adjusting for inflation.
GDP is typically calculated using the formula: GDP = C + G + I + NX, where:
C= Private Consumption (spending by individuals)G= Government Spending (government expenditure on producing goods and services, contributing about 11% to India’s GDP)I= Investment (private sector business growth contributes about 32% to GDP)NX= Net Exports (Total Exports – Total Imports; this component often has a negative impact on India’s GDP as imports tend to exceed exports).
Market AnticipationMarket Anticipation
As the stock markets approach their 3:30 PM closing time, ahead of the 4 PM GDP data release, there is a sense of anticipation. Currently, the Nifty 50 is trading at approximately 27,780, down by 58 points from its previous close. In contrast, the Bank Nifty is trading higher at around 66,577, up by 131 points.
Read Also: India’s Q4 GDP Growth Surges to 7.4%, FY25 Closes at 6.5%; Beats Expectations
The actual GDP figures released this evening will be closely watched by economists, policymakers, and investors, as they will provide a clearer picture of India’s economic health at the close of FY2024-25 and set the tone for future projections and policy considerations. This India Q4 FY25 GDP data preview suggests a continued, albeit moderate, growth momentum.