NEW DELHI, May 28, 2025: India is witnessing a concerning rise in COVID-19 cases, with the active caseload crossing the 1,000 mark this week, accompanied by the identification of four new Omicron sub-variants. The latest data points to an India COVID surge with new variants in May 2025, though health officials maintain that the situation is not alarming yet, emphasizing caution over panic.
According to the Union Health Ministry, as of May 26, India reported 1,047 active coronavirus cases, a significant jump from just 257 active cases recorded on May 19 – an increase of over 750 cases in a single week. Kerala currently has the highest burden with 430 active cases, followed by Maharashtra (210), Delhi (104), Gujarat (83), and Karnataka (80, with 73 in Bengaluru alone). Tragically, 12 deaths related to COVID-19 have been reported recently across Maharashtra (5), Rajasthan (2), West Bengal (1), Karnataka (1), Madhya Pradesh (1), and a new fatality in Firozabad, Uttar Pradesh, marking the state’s first death from the new variants.
New Variants Identified, JN.1 Dominant
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Director, Dr. Rajiv Bahl, confirmed that genome sequencing of samples from South and West India revealed the presence of four new Omicron sub-variants: LF.7, XFG, JN.1, and NB.1.8.1. He stated that while sequencing from other regions is ongoing, the current cases are “not very severe,” and people should “not worry, just be alert.” The World Health Organization (WHO) has also not classified these as “variants of concern” yet, but has them under monitoring. These variants are reportedly prevalent in other Asian countries, including China.
Among these, JN.1 has emerged as the most common variant in India, found in approximately 53% of sequenced samples. First detected in Luxembourg in August 2023 and in Kerala, India, in December 2023, JN.1 (a descendant of Omicron’s BA.2.86 strain) is now spreading rapidly. According to Johns Hopkins University, JN.1 is more easily transmissible than other variants but does not cause very severe illness. It has about 30 mutations that can weaken immunity. The WHO designated it a “Variant of Interest” in December 2023. Symptoms can last from a few days to weeks, with the possibility of Long COVID if symptoms persist.
The NB.1.8.1 variant also exhibits spike protein mutations (A435S, V445H, T478I) that contribute to faster spread and immune evasion.
Transmission and Infectiousness
Dr. Sanchayan Roy, Senior Consultant at Apollo Spectra Hospital, Delhi, explained that the new coronavirus variants spread similarly to the original COVID-19 virus: through droplets (coughing, sneezing, talking), direct contact, contaminated surfaces, and airborne particles, especially in crowded or poorly ventilated areas.
The reproductive number (RO) – indicating how many people an infected person can transmit the virus to – for JN.1 and LF.7 is estimated by WHO to be between 4 and 6, compared to 2-4 for the original COVID-19. JN.1 is considered 50-70% more infectious than the original strain due to easier airborne transmission and its ability to weaken immunity. NB.1.8.1 and XFG have an estimated RO between 5 and 7.
Vaccine Efficacy and Vulnerable Groups
“Even those who have been vaccinated previously can get infected by the new variants,” stated Dr. Sanchayan Roy. “However, existing vaccination still helps in reducing the severity of the new variants and aids the body in fighting them.”
According to Dr. Deeksha गोयल of Marengo Asia Hospital, Gurugram, and Dr. Sandeep Budhiraja of Max Healthcare Hospital, Delhi, four groups are more susceptible:
- Elderly (above 65 years): Weakening immune systems and comorbidities like diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension increase risk. Those without booster doses are more vulnerable.
- Infants (below 1 year): Some countries have seen easy transmission in this group, though cases in India are currently low. Three new cases, including one child, were recently reported at AIIMS Rishikesh.
- Immunocompromised individuals: Those with cancer, HIV, or other major illnesses are at higher risk as vaccine-induced antibodies might be weaker.
- Frequent travelers: Increased exposure, especially since all new variants have arrived in India from abroad. A recent case in Noida involved a 55-year-old woman who contracted XFG after returning from a train journey.
Individuals with pre-existing health conditions and those not fully vaccinated also remain at higher risk.
Updated Vaccines and Lockdown Possibility
Updated vaccines are available that target newer Omicron sub-variants:
- Pfizer-BioNTech (2023-24 update): Targets XBB.1.5 and its sub-lineages like JN.1, LF.7, XFG. CDC reports 50-60% efficacy in preventing infection.
- Moderna (2024 update): Used for NB.1.8.1, LF.7, XFG variants; helps reduce symptom severity.
- Novavax/Covovax (NVX-CoV2373): A protein sub-unit vaccine reportedly 80-90% effective against all variants, including JN.1.
Regarding the possibility of another nationwide lockdown, Dr. Sanchayan Roy believes it’s unlikely under current circumstances. “The virus was new during the initial COVID-19 wave, and the human body lacked the capability to fight it. Lockdown was a strategic measure… The situation is not that dire now for a lockdown. It’s under control, and the new variant is not as dangerous as the original COVID-19, though it spreads fast.” However, he cautioned that if new, more dangerous variants emerge, lockdowns could be considered if necessary. The Indian government has reportedly begun preparations, including arranging extra hospital beds and ensuring oxygen supply.
Latest State-wise Updates
As of Tuesday (May 27), India’s active COVID-19 caseload reached 1,083. Kerala continues to report the highest number (430). New cases on Tuesday included Karnataka (36), Gujarat (17, with 13 recoveries), Bihar (5), and Haryana (3). The North-East also saw new cases, with two women testing positive in Arunachal Pradesh.
In view of Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled visit to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on May 29-30, state health departments are on alert, with directives for COVID-19 testing for all individuals within a 100-meter radius of the PM.
This ongoing India COVID surge with new variants in May 2025 underscores the need for continued vigilance, adherence to preventive measures like masking in crowded places, hand hygiene, and staying updated with vaccinations and official health advisories.